Historical Perspective
Concluding Observations
The 2026 war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is still ongoing as of this writing. Its outcome remains deeply uncertain. The United States has achieved many of its immediate military objectives — destroying much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, killing its Supreme Leader, and severely degrading its navy and missile forces. But Iran has proven willing to absorb enormous pain and continue fighting.
The human cost is staggering — over 1,300 civilians killed in Iran, more than 600 in Lebanon, and at least eight American soldiers dead. Up to 3.2 million Iranians have been displaced. Oil prices have broken $100 a barrel, threatening global economic stability. The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world's oil flows — remains closed.
Diplomatically, the world is divided. Russia is a reluctant bystander that quietly benefits from rising oil prices. China opposes the war. Europe is uncomfortable but largely silent. India is caught between its alliances with America and Israel on one side, and its deep interests in Iran on the other.
What happens next depends on several unknowns: Will the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, seek a ceasefire or escalate further? Will Iran attempt a nuclear breakout? Will China or Russia step in more directly? And will the American public, facing higher gas prices and an uncertain military outcome, continue to support the war?
One thing is already certain: the Middle East as it existed before February 28, 2026, is gone. Whatever emerges from this conflict will shape the region — and the world — for decades to come. Supply of energy will be the economic stability in terms of volumes and prices:
To understand why America and Iran are at war today, we must go back more than 70 years. After World War II, the world was divided between two superpowers — the United States of America and the Soviet Union (USSR). Both countries competed for influence across the world, and the Middle East, sitting on top of the largest oil reserves on earth, became one of the most important battlegrounds of this rivalry.
Iran, located between the Soviet Union to the north and the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to the south, was perfectly placed — both as a threat and as an opportunity. American leaders feared that if the Soviets gained control of Iran, they would gain direct access to the Gulf, control a major oil supplier, and be able to cut off energy to Western Europe. To prevent this, the United States moved decisively.
In 1953, the CIA and British intelligence jointly organized a coup — called 'Operation Ajax' — that removed Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Mosaddegh had nationalized Iran's oil industry, trying to take it back from British hands. The West feared he might turn to the Soviets for support. In his place, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was restored to full power. He became a loyal American ally.
For the next 26 years, Iran was Washington's most important partner in the Middle East. The Shah purchased billions of dollars in American weapons. The CIA trained his feared secret police, known as SAVAK. American oil companies operated freely in Iran. In return, Iran served as a wall against Soviet expansion and kept Persian Gulf oil flowing to the West. Iran was even called 'the policeman of the Gulf' by President Nixon.
This entire arrangement collapsed in 1979, when ordinary Iranians rose up and overthrew the Shah in the Islamic Revolution. Led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran became an Islamic Republic that declared America its enemy — calling it the 'Great Satan.' The new Iranian government rejected both American and Soviet influence.
The same year, Iranian students stormed the American embassy in Tehran and held 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days. This single act of humiliation burned itself into American national memory, and no American leader since has been able to fully forget it. Relations between the two countries never recovered. Sanctions, proxy wars, assassinations, and near-wars followed for the next four and a half decades — until February 2026, when the shooting finally started.
Israel and Iran: History, Biblical Roots, and Geostrategic Rivalry
A. Israel's Foundation and Strategic Importance
Israel is a small country — about the size of New Jersey — situated at the junction of three continents: Europe, Asia, and Africa. Despite its size, it holds enormous strategic importance. Whoever controls the eastern Mediterranean controls the land bridge between these continents, and controls the approach to the Suez Canal, through which a large part of global trade passes.
Israel was founded in May 1948, following the end of the British Mandate over Palestine. The Jewish people had endured centuries of persecution in Europe, culminating in the Holocaust during World War II, in which six million Jews were murdered by Nazi Germany. The creation of a Jewish homeland — the State of Israel — was the response of the international community, backed by the United Nations. However, Arab nations in the region rejected this, leading to the first Arab-Israeli war.
From its very first day, Israel existed in a state of siege. Surrounded by Arab states that did not recognize its existence, it built one of the most capable militaries in the world. The United States became its most important ally and protector, providing billions of dollars in military aid annually. The American relationship with Israel has been one of the most consistent foreign policy commitments in Washington for over 75 years.
B. Biblical Dimensions
The conflict between Israel and Iran also has deep religious and civilizational layers. Israel was established in the land the Jewish tradition calls the Promised Land — the land given by God to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob according to the Hebrew Bible. This is the same land considered holy by Christians and, to a significant extent, by Muslims. For Jewish Israelis, the return to Zion is not merely a political event — it is the fulfillment of ancient prophecy.
Iran's revolutionary ideology, under Ayatollah Khomeini and his successors, elevated the destruction of Israel to a religious duty. The government of Iran referred to Israel as a 'cancerous tumor' that must be removed from the region. Iranian leaders have hosted conferences questioning the Holocaust and called for Israel to be 'wiped off the map.' These statements made any diplomatic compromise between the two countries almost impossible.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spent decades building a 'ring of fire' around Israel — funding and arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, and the Houthis in Yemen. The goal was simple: if Iran ever came under direct attack by Israel, it could unleash its proxies from all directions simultaneously.
C. Geostrategic Location and the Axis of Confrontation
Iran sits at the top of the Persian Gulf and borders Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Caucasus. It controls the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes. This single chokepoint is one of the most strategically important places on earth. The ability to close the Strait of Hormuz gave Iran enormous leverage over the global economy.
For Israel, an Iran armed with nuclear weapons would be an existential threat. A nuclear Iran could deter Israeli military action, protect its proxies, and gradually shift the balance of power across the entire Middle East. For this reason, preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb became Israel's most important security objective — one it pursued with assassinations of scientists, cyberattacks (including the Stuxnet virus), and ultimately, military strikes.
India's Role in the Iran–Israel Equation
India has long walked a tightrope between Israel and Iran — two countries with which it has deep and different kinds of relationships.
India's ties with Iran are ancient and civilizational. Persian culture deeply influenced Indian literature, poetry, and architecture. The Mughal emperors, who built the Taj Mahal and ruled much of India for centuries, came from Central Asian-Persian traditions. Iran and India share the memory of centuries of commerce, migration, and cultural exchange. In modern times, India and Iran cooperated on the development of the Chabahar Port in Iran — a critical gateway connecting India to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
At the same time, India has built an increasingly close relationship with Israel since the two countries established full diplomatic relations in 1992. Israel has become India's most important supplier of advanced weapons — drones, missile systems, radar, and surveillance technology. India and Israel cooperate closely in counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and agriculture. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first sitting Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel, in 2017. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has visited India and referred to Modi as his 'brother.'
This double relationship was severely tested on February 26, 2026 — just two days before the war began — when Prime Minister Modi addressed the Israeli Knesset (parliament), warmly hugged Netanyahu, upgraded bilateral ties to a 'Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity,' and accepted a special Knesset medal. Two days later, American and Israeli warplanes struck Iran.
Indian officials have since denied any prior knowledge of the strikes. Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar stated publicly: 'We could not brief Prime Minister Modi on Thursday, because the decision was taken only on Saturday early morning, and that happened only after the failure of negotiations between the US and Iran that took place on that same Thursday.'
But the optics were damaging. India's silence on the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei drew sharp criticism at home and abroad. The Indian opposition Congress party accused Modi of 'the highest moral cowardice.' A former Indian ambassador said: 'PM Modi's visit to Israel was wrongly timed and has completely ripped India off its neutrality.'
"India must once again walk a tightrope. Its calibrated response — expressing concern while avoiding explicit condemnation — reflects its simultaneous partnerships with the United States, Israel, and Iran."
— Harsh V. Pant, Vice President, Observer Research Foundation, and Professor at King's College London
On March 12, 2026, Prime Minister Modi finally spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying: 'Expressed deep concern over the escalation of tensions and the loss of civilian lives as well as damage to civilian infrastructure. The safety and security of Indian nationals, along with the need for unhindered transit of goods and energy, remain India's top priorities.'
India's dilemma is real. Nearly 10 million Indian citizens live and work across Gulf countries — in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. These workers send home billions of dollars each year. Two-thirds of India's crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian warship, the IRIS Dena, which had participated in naval exercises hosted by India, was torpedoed by a US submarine just off the coast of Sri Lanka on March 4 — a deeply humiliating incident for Indian naval prestige. India said nothing publicly.
Background and Beginning of the Current War
The 2026 war did not begin overnight. It was the result of years of escalating tension, failed diplomacy, and strategic miscalculation on multiple sides.
After the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018 under President Trump's first term, Iran gradually expanded its nuclear program, enriching uranium to ever-higher levels. By 2025 and early 2026, Western intelligence agencies assessed that Iran was weeks or months away from being able to build a nuclear weapon if it chose to do so.
In June 2025, a previous confrontation — called the 'Twelve-Day War' — saw Israel and the US launch airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and air defenses. Iran's defenses were damaged, its nuclear program was set back, and several key proxy forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, were severely weakened by years of Israeli military pressure.
By early 2026, Iran was in a weakened state. Its economy was under severe sanctions pressure. Ordinary Iranians were protesting in the streets over poverty and repression. Hezbollah had been hit hard by Israel. The Houthis in Yemen were under sustained attack. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 86, was believed to be in declining health.
In February 2026, American and Iranian diplomats held indirect talks in Geneva, with Oman serving as mediator. There appeared to be progress — Iran indicated willingness to make concessions on its nuclear program. But President Trump said he was 'not thrilled' with the pace of talks.
Then came a pivotal day: February 28, 2026. In the early morning hours, American B-2 Spirit stealth bombers and Israeli F-35 fighters launched a massive coordinated strike against Iran — an operation the United States called 'Operation Epic Fury.' The targets included Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, missile manufacturing sites, naval bases, leadership compounds, and the residence of Supreme Leader Khamenei himself.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had led Iran for 35 years since the death of Khomeini, was killed in the strikes. Other senior Iranian military and political officials also died. It was the most dramatic decapitation strike of a government in modern history.
Iran immediately retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousands of drones — targeting Israel, US military bases across the Middle East, and the Gulf states that hosted American forces.
Multiple Interest & Perspectives
A. Israel's Perspective
For Israel, this war was not a choice — it was a necessity. For decades, Israeli leaders had warned that a nuclear-armed Iran would be an existential threat. Iran had funded, trained, and equipped armies on three of Israel's borders — Hezbollah in the north (Lebanon), Hamas in the west (Gaza), and Hezbollah-aligned forces in Syria to the northeast.
Israel's calculus was: Iran is at its weakest point in decades. Its proxies have been damaged. Its air defenses have been hit. The window to prevent a nuclear Iran is closing. Strike now or face a nuclear-armed enemy that can never be attacked again.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had argued for years that the only language Iran's government understands is force. The killing of Khamenei was celebrated in some quarters of Israeli society as the removal of the most dangerous enemy the Jewish state had faced. Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar stated the goal simply: 'We do not want to go to a new war every year. The political endgame will be written by the Iranian people.'
Israel's calculation was that a post-Khamenei Iran, weakened militarily and economically, might be ripe for regime change — or at least a fundamental change in behavior. The Israeli public, exhausted by years of rocket attacks and terrorist operations, broadly supported the action.
B. Gulf Countries' Perspective
The Arab Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman — have always had a deeply complicated relationship with Iran. They are predominantly Arab and Sunni Muslim; Iran is Persian and Shia Muslim. For decades, Saudi Arabia and Iran competed for leadership of the Islamic world.
The Gulf states had quietly moved toward accommodating Iran after the 2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran normalization deal. They were trying to build trade and reduce tensions. This war disrupted all of that overnight.
Iran's retaliatory strikes targeted Gulf capitals — Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Doha, Manama, and Kuwait City. Dubai Airport, one of the world's busiest, was struck by drone attacks. Oil infrastructure was hit. At least a dozen people in Gulf countries were killed by Iranian missiles and drones. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down.
Qatar's energy minister warned that if the war continues, Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare force majeure, warning: 'This will bring down economies of the world.' A Reuters analysis noted that by sending missiles at Gulf states, Iran had caused those states to realize that Iran poses a real threat — inadvertently pushing them closer to supporting the US-Israel strikes.
The Gulf states are caught between their economic interest in stability and their fear of Iran. Saudi Arabia's military intercepted multiple Iranian drones. Bahrain arrested four citizens on espionage charges for working with Iran's IRGC. Kuwait saw six electricity transmission lines knocked out by drone debris. These countries did not invite this war, but they are now living with its consequences.
C. Russia's Perspective
Russia's position is a study in strategic ambiguity and cold calculation. Russia and Iran had grown close in recent years — bonded by shared hostility to the West, mutual economic interests, and military cooperation. Iran had supplied Russia with Shahed drones that were used to devastating effect against Ukraine. Russia had supplied Iran with satellite data and, reportedly, specific drone-targeting intelligence during the current war.
Yet Russia did not come to Iran's defense. President Putin called the killing of Khamenei 'cynical' but refused to name the United States. He called Gulf leaders to offer Russia as a mediator. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov condemned the strikes but offered no military support.
Why? Because Russia has its own calculations. The war in Iran has spiked global oil prices — Brent crude jumped past $100 per barrel. Russia, whose economy depends on oil exports, benefits directly. Trump temporarily lifted some sanctions on Russian oil to help stabilize global energy markets, another windfall for Moscow. Every Patriot air defense missile used to shoot down Iranian drones over Gulf cities is one fewer available to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles.
Russian analyst Fyodor Lukyanov stated: The killing of the head of one state by the forces of another state, in the same pattern as the liquidation of the leaders of terrorist organizations or drug cartels, is a fundamentally different dimension of world politics.
D. Western European Perspective
Western Europe has been deeply uncomfortable with this war, but has largely not opposed it. France and Germany joined UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in condemning Iranian counter-strikes, while calling for a resumption of diplomacy. However, Starmer also allowed American forces to use British bases for the war. France authorized the use of French military bases for American operations as well.
Spain took a harder position — it refused to allow its military bases to be used for US flights connected to the Iran offensive, leading President Trump to threaten economic retaliation against Spain.
The Europeans' core concern is threefold: First, they believe the strikes were illegal under international law and set a dangerous precedent for regime change by military force. Second, they are alarmed by rising oil prices and the threat to global economic stability. Third, they worry about a nuclear breakout — if Iran decides that conventional deterrence has failed, it might rush toward a nuclear weapon.
European leaders also invoked Ukraine — noting that the same type of shock-and-decapitation strategy used against Iran could, in theory, be contemplated against other countries. The precedent terrified many in Europe.
E. American Interests
President Trump framed the war as necessary and justified. His stated goals included destroying Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, its navy, and its network of terrorist proxies. He also called for regime change in Tehran. Trump praised the joint operation as 'crushing the enemy' and said the war was 'very far ahead of schedule.'
But the economic consequences have been severe. Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel. Stock markets fell sharply. American consumers faced higher fuel costs and rising grocery prices. Seven US soldiers were killed — the first American battle deaths in the Middle East in years. The war disrupted global trade, stranded hundreds of thousands of travelers, and threatened the global economy.
The Trump administration claimed it had a plan to keep energy markets stable — releasing strategic reserves, coordinating with allies to add oil to markets, and even temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil. Critics pointed out that these measures were reactive, not preventive.
The deeper American interest is strategic: the removal of the Iranian regime — or at minimum the permanent destruction of its nuclear and military capabilities — would reshape the Middle East in America's favor, cementing Israeli security, reassuring Gulf allies, and eliminating the single most significant adversary of American power in the region.
F. Indian Perspective
India's core interests in this war are economic and humanitarian. Ten million Indian citizens live across the Gulf. Two-thirds of India's oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz. India's Chabahar Port development in Iran — a strategic gateway to Central Asia — is now at risk. Indian businesses and workers are caught in the middle of a war they had no role in.
Modi's government has faced sharp criticism for its silence on the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader and the violation of Iranian sovereignty. At the same time, it has condemned Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states, where most Indian workers live. This asymmetry — condemning Iran's retaliation while staying silent on the original American-Israeli strikes — has been noticed across the world and has damaged India's credibility as a neutral actor.
India's long-term interest is in a stable Middle East, free movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the safety of its diaspora. The war serves none of these interests. India has urged dialogue and diplomacy but lacks the leverage or the political will to play a meaningful mediating role.
How they see the ongoing War
Donald Trump, US President: Together [with Israel] we are crushing the enemy. The war is very far ahead of schedule. Iran would have used a nuclear weapon against Israel if it possessed one.
Pete Hegseth, US Defense Secretary: The US will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated. President Trump gets to control the throttle of this war.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian President: Iran will consider ending the war if its legitimate rights are recognised, reparations are paid, and firm international guarantees prevent future attacks.
Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new Supreme Leader: The Strait of Hormuz oil shipping lane will remain closed. Bases used by US forces will be subjected to further attacks unless they are shut down.
Yahya Rahim Safavi, Senior Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader: Trump is the most corrupt and stupid American president — Satan himself.
Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran will continue fighting as long as necessary. America has decided to put an end to the existence of Iran. They held talks in Geneva and then committed aggression against us. They are carpet bombing Iran.
Gidon Saar, Israeli Foreign Minister: Iran is acting very stupidly, attacking not less than 10 countries — all the Gulf states, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, even Turkey. This regime is not sane. We do not want to go to a new war every year. The political endgame will be written by the Iranian people.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister: [To Modi] You are my brother. [On the war] Israel and the United States are eliminating the threat for the long term.
Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister: US-Israeli strikes on Iran were unprovoked aggression and unacceptable.
Vladimir Putin, Russian President: [Called Khamenei's killing] a cynical murder. Russia is ready to use all possibilities at hand to actively help stabilize the situation.
Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister: This was a war that should never have happened, and a war that benefited no one.
Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister: Expressed deep concern over the escalation of tensions and the loss of civilian lives. The safety and security of Indian nationals, along with the need for unhindered transit of goods and energy, remain India's top priorities.
Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister: [He] does not believe in regime change from the skies. [But condemned Iranian counter-strikes and called for diplomacy.]
UN Special Rapporteur Ben Saul: Iran had not enriched uranium to the point of building a nuclear device. The case was nowhere close to being self-defense against an imminent attack. The strikes appear illegal under the Rome Statute.
Chronology of Events: Last 13 Days (Feb 28 – Mar 13, 2026)
Day 1 — Saturday, February 28: American B-2 bombers and Israeli F-35 jets launch 'Operation Epic Fury' — a massive surprise attack on nuclear sites, missile factories, naval bases, and leadership compounds across Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed. An Iranian missile kills 9 people in Beit Shemesh, central Israel. An explosion is seen in Tel Aviv. IRGC fires 10 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv, injuring 124. Iranian missile and drone strikes begin across Gulf countries. The Russian consulate in Isfahan is damaged in US-Israeli strikes. Iranian IRGC fires over 500 missiles and nearly 2,000 drones in the first days. Iran strikes the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.
Day 2 — Sunday, March 1: Dubai Airport — one of the world's busiest — is struck and temporarily closes. Iranian strikes hit Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Manama, Kuwait, and Doha. Smoke billows from Zayed Port in Abu Dhabi. Iraq suspends oil terminal operations after Iranian attacks set two oil tankers on fire. An Iranian missile strike hits the US Embassy in Kuwait. Russia offers to mediate.
Day 3 — Monday, March 2: A Kuwaiti F/A-18 shoots down three American F-15E jets in a friendly fire incident; all six crew survive. US strikes destroy Iran's Supreme National Security Council headquarters and what officials call an underground nuclear weapons facility. Twenty civilians are killed in Tehran's Niloofar Square. Iran strikes Erbil, Iraq — near US forces. Dow Jones falls over 400 points.
Day 4 — Tuesday, March 3: Iran's Red Crescent reports over 600 civilians killed in Iran. US and Israeli strikes reportedly damage Natanz nuclear facility. Bushehr Airport is struck; an Iran Air passenger plane is destroyed on the ground. Russian nuclear agency Rosatom suspends work at the Bushehr Nuclear Plant and evacuates non-essential staff. Jordan reports 119 Iranian missiles and drones fired at its territory.
Day 5 — Wednesday, March 4: US military reports destruction of 16 Iranian naval minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian warship IRIS Dena is torpedoed by a US submarine just off Sri Lanka — the ship had just left an Indian naval exercise. Saudi Arabia intercepts multiple drones heading toward the Shaybah oilfield. A girl dies in Kuwait from shrapnel wounds.
Day 6 — Thursday, March 5: France authorizes US forces to use French bases. Iranian forces fire over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since Day 1 — 40% aimed at Israel, 60% at US targets. Qatar says Qatar Airways will operate limited flights.
Day 7 — Friday, March 6: Qatar's energy minister warns the war could halt Gulf energy exports entirely and 'bring down economies of the world.' Oil prices rise sharply.
Day 8 — Saturday, March 7: US Central Command reports strikes on over 5,000 Iranian targets. Satellite images confirm fresh damage at Natanz nuclear facility and the Isfahan missile complex. Lebanon's death toll from Israeli strikes surpasses 486. UNESCO protests damage to Golestan Palace, a World Heritage Site.
Day 9 — Sunday, March 8: Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the assassinated Supreme Leader, is elected Iran's new Supreme Leader. He suffered minor injuries in the initial strikes. Iran and Hezbollah launch a joint five-hour missile attack, striking over 50 targets in Israel. The Pentagon identifies the seventh American killed — Sgt. Benjamin Pennington of Kentucky — who died of wounds from an attack on Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia.
Day 10 — Monday, March 9: Trump says war could be over 'pretty quickly.' Iran's new Supreme Leader vows to keep fighting. Russia is reported to be giving Iran specific tactical advice on drone targeting. Hundreds of thousands rally in Tehran in support of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Iranian women's soccer team, playing in Australia, refuses to sing the national anthem — several players seek asylum.
Day 11 — Tuesday, March 10: Iran and Hezbollah carry out joint missile operation. Five hours of sustained fire; over 50 targets struck in Israel. Israel launches large-scale strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs. One man dies from shrapnel near Tel Aviv airport. Gulf countries intercept Iranian missiles. IEA releases a record 400 million barrels of oil reserves.
Day 12 — Wednesday, March 11: IRGC fires on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran mines the Strait; US destroys 16 Iranian minelayers. A top Iranian official rules out diplomacy in a CNN interview. US CENTCOM reports over 6,000 airstrikes on Iran. Oil hits $100 a barrel.
Day 13 — Thursday, March 12–13: At least 1,348 civilians killed and over 17,000 injured in Iran. In Lebanon, over 634 killed. Up to 3.2 million people displaced inside Iran, according to UNHCR. Iran's President Pezeshkian states three conditions for ending the war: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future attacks. India's PM Modi calls Iranian President and expresses concern. Netanyahu says Israeli strikes have killed Iran's top nuclear scientists. Oil prices remain above $100.
Iran, located between the Soviet Union to the north and the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to the south, was perfectly placed — both as a threat and as an opportunity. American leaders feared that if the Soviets gained control of Iran, they would gain direct access to the Gulf, control a major oil supplier, and be able to cut off energy to Western Europe. To prevent this, the United States moved decisively.
In 1953, the CIA and British intelligence jointly organized a coup — called 'Operation Ajax' — that removed Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Mosaddegh had nationalized Iran's oil industry, trying to take it back from British hands. The West feared he might turn to the Soviets for support. In his place, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was restored to full power. He became a loyal American ally.
For the next 26 years, Iran was Washington's most important partner in the Middle East. The Shah purchased billions of dollars in American weapons. The CIA trained his feared secret police, known as SAVAK. American oil companies operated freely in Iran. In return, Iran served as a wall against Soviet expansion and kept Persian Gulf oil flowing to the West. Iran was even called 'the policeman of the Gulf' by President Nixon.
This entire arrangement collapsed in 1979, when ordinary Iranians rose up and overthrew the Shah in the Islamic Revolution. Led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran became an Islamic Republic that declared America its enemy — calling it the 'Great Satan.' The new Iranian government rejected both American and Soviet influence.
The same year, Iranian students stormed the American embassy in Tehran and held 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days. This single act of humiliation burned itself into American national memory, and no American leader since has been able to fully forget it. Relations between the two countries never recovered. Sanctions, proxy wars, assassinations, and near-wars followed for the next four and a half decades — until February 2026, when the shooting finally started.
Israel and Iran: History, Biblical Roots, and Geostrategic Rivalry
A. Israel's Foundation and Strategic Importance
Israel is a small country — about the size of New Jersey — situated at the junction of three continents: Europe, Asia, and Africa. Despite its size, it holds enormous strategic importance. Whoever controls the eastern Mediterranean controls the land bridge between these continents, and controls the approach to the Suez Canal, through which a large part of global trade passes.
Israel was founded in May 1948, following the end of the British Mandate over Palestine. The Jewish people had endured centuries of persecution in Europe, culminating in the Holocaust during World War II, in which six million Jews were murdered by Nazi Germany. The creation of a Jewish homeland — the State of Israel — was the response of the international community, backed by the United Nations. However, Arab nations in the region rejected this, leading to the first Arab-Israeli war.
From its very first day, Israel existed in a state of siege. Surrounded by Arab states that did not recognize its existence, it built one of the most capable militaries in the world. The United States became its most important ally and protector, providing billions of dollars in military aid annually. The American relationship with Israel has been one of the most consistent foreign policy commitments in Washington for over 75 years.
B. Biblical Dimensions
The conflict between Israel and Iran also has deep religious and civilizational layers. Israel was established in the land the Jewish tradition calls the Promised Land — the land given by God to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob according to the Hebrew Bible. This is the same land considered holy by Christians and, to a significant extent, by Muslims. For Jewish Israelis, the return to Zion is not merely a political event — it is the fulfillment of ancient prophecy.
Iran's revolutionary ideology, under Ayatollah Khomeini and his successors, elevated the destruction of Israel to a religious duty. The government of Iran referred to Israel as a 'cancerous tumor' that must be removed from the region. Iranian leaders have hosted conferences questioning the Holocaust and called for Israel to be 'wiped off the map.' These statements made any diplomatic compromise between the two countries almost impossible.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spent decades building a 'ring of fire' around Israel — funding and arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, and the Houthis in Yemen. The goal was simple: if Iran ever came under direct attack by Israel, it could unleash its proxies from all directions simultaneously.
C. Geostrategic Location and the Axis of Confrontation
Iran sits at the top of the Persian Gulf and borders Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Caucasus. It controls the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes. This single chokepoint is one of the most strategically important places on earth. The ability to close the Strait of Hormuz gave Iran enormous leverage over the global economy.
For Israel, an Iran armed with nuclear weapons would be an existential threat. A nuclear Iran could deter Israeli military action, protect its proxies, and gradually shift the balance of power across the entire Middle East. For this reason, preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb became Israel's most important security objective — one it pursued with assassinations of scientists, cyberattacks (including the Stuxnet virus), and ultimately, military strikes.
India's Role in the Iran–Israel Equation
India has long walked a tightrope between Israel and Iran — two countries with which it has deep and different kinds of relationships.
India's ties with Iran are ancient and civilizational. Persian culture deeply influenced Indian literature, poetry, and architecture. The Mughal emperors, who built the Taj Mahal and ruled much of India for centuries, came from Central Asian-Persian traditions. Iran and India share the memory of centuries of commerce, migration, and cultural exchange. In modern times, India and Iran cooperated on the development of the Chabahar Port in Iran — a critical gateway connecting India to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
At the same time, India has built an increasingly close relationship with Israel since the two countries established full diplomatic relations in 1992. Israel has become India's most important supplier of advanced weapons — drones, missile systems, radar, and surveillance technology. India and Israel cooperate closely in counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and agriculture. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first sitting Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel, in 2017. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has visited India and referred to Modi as his 'brother.'
This double relationship was severely tested on February 26, 2026 — just two days before the war began — when Prime Minister Modi addressed the Israeli Knesset (parliament), warmly hugged Netanyahu, upgraded bilateral ties to a 'Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity,' and accepted a special Knesset medal. Two days later, American and Israeli warplanes struck Iran.
Indian officials have since denied any prior knowledge of the strikes. Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar stated publicly: 'We could not brief Prime Minister Modi on Thursday, because the decision was taken only on Saturday early morning, and that happened only after the failure of negotiations between the US and Iran that took place on that same Thursday.'
But the optics were damaging. India's silence on the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei drew sharp criticism at home and abroad. The Indian opposition Congress party accused Modi of 'the highest moral cowardice.' A former Indian ambassador said: 'PM Modi's visit to Israel was wrongly timed and has completely ripped India off its neutrality.'
"India must once again walk a tightrope. Its calibrated response — expressing concern while avoiding explicit condemnation — reflects its simultaneous partnerships with the United States, Israel, and Iran."
— Harsh V. Pant, Vice President, Observer Research Foundation, and Professor at King's College London
On March 12, 2026, Prime Minister Modi finally spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian, saying: 'Expressed deep concern over the escalation of tensions and the loss of civilian lives as well as damage to civilian infrastructure. The safety and security of Indian nationals, along with the need for unhindered transit of goods and energy, remain India's top priorities.'
India's dilemma is real. Nearly 10 million Indian citizens live and work across Gulf countries — in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. These workers send home billions of dollars each year. Two-thirds of India's crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian warship, the IRIS Dena, which had participated in naval exercises hosted by India, was torpedoed by a US submarine just off the coast of Sri Lanka on March 4 — a deeply humiliating incident for Indian naval prestige. India said nothing publicly.
Background and Beginning of the Current War
The 2026 war did not begin overnight. It was the result of years of escalating tension, failed diplomacy, and strategic miscalculation on multiple sides.
After the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018 under President Trump's first term, Iran gradually expanded its nuclear program, enriching uranium to ever-higher levels. By 2025 and early 2026, Western intelligence agencies assessed that Iran was weeks or months away from being able to build a nuclear weapon if it chose to do so.
In June 2025, a previous confrontation — called the 'Twelve-Day War' — saw Israel and the US launch airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and air defenses. Iran's defenses were damaged, its nuclear program was set back, and several key proxy forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, were severely weakened by years of Israeli military pressure.
By early 2026, Iran was in a weakened state. Its economy was under severe sanctions pressure. Ordinary Iranians were protesting in the streets over poverty and repression. Hezbollah had been hit hard by Israel. The Houthis in Yemen were under sustained attack. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 86, was believed to be in declining health.
In February 2026, American and Iranian diplomats held indirect talks in Geneva, with Oman serving as mediator. There appeared to be progress — Iran indicated willingness to make concessions on its nuclear program. But President Trump said he was 'not thrilled' with the pace of talks.
Then came a pivotal day: February 28, 2026. In the early morning hours, American B-2 Spirit stealth bombers and Israeli F-35 fighters launched a massive coordinated strike against Iran — an operation the United States called 'Operation Epic Fury.' The targets included Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, missile manufacturing sites, naval bases, leadership compounds, and the residence of Supreme Leader Khamenei himself.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had led Iran for 35 years since the death of Khomeini, was killed in the strikes. Other senior Iranian military and political officials also died. It was the most dramatic decapitation strike of a government in modern history.
Iran immediately retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousands of drones — targeting Israel, US military bases across the Middle East, and the Gulf states that hosted American forces.
Multiple Interest & Perspectives
A. Israel's Perspective
For Israel, this war was not a choice — it was a necessity. For decades, Israeli leaders had warned that a nuclear-armed Iran would be an existential threat. Iran had funded, trained, and equipped armies on three of Israel's borders — Hezbollah in the north (Lebanon), Hamas in the west (Gaza), and Hezbollah-aligned forces in Syria to the northeast.
Israel's calculus was: Iran is at its weakest point in decades. Its proxies have been damaged. Its air defenses have been hit. The window to prevent a nuclear Iran is closing. Strike now or face a nuclear-armed enemy that can never be attacked again.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had argued for years that the only language Iran's government understands is force. The killing of Khamenei was celebrated in some quarters of Israeli society as the removal of the most dangerous enemy the Jewish state had faced. Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar stated the goal simply: 'We do not want to go to a new war every year. The political endgame will be written by the Iranian people.'
Israel's calculation was that a post-Khamenei Iran, weakened militarily and economically, might be ripe for regime change — or at least a fundamental change in behavior. The Israeli public, exhausted by years of rocket attacks and terrorist operations, broadly supported the action.
B. Gulf Countries' Perspective
The Arab Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman — have always had a deeply complicated relationship with Iran. They are predominantly Arab and Sunni Muslim; Iran is Persian and Shia Muslim. For decades, Saudi Arabia and Iran competed for leadership of the Islamic world.
The Gulf states had quietly moved toward accommodating Iran after the 2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran normalization deal. They were trying to build trade and reduce tensions. This war disrupted all of that overnight.
Iran's retaliatory strikes targeted Gulf capitals — Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Doha, Manama, and Kuwait City. Dubai Airport, one of the world's busiest, was struck by drone attacks. Oil infrastructure was hit. At least a dozen people in Gulf countries were killed by Iranian missiles and drones. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down.
Qatar's energy minister warned that if the war continues, Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare force majeure, warning: 'This will bring down economies of the world.' A Reuters analysis noted that by sending missiles at Gulf states, Iran had caused those states to realize that Iran poses a real threat — inadvertently pushing them closer to supporting the US-Israel strikes.
The Gulf states are caught between their economic interest in stability and their fear of Iran. Saudi Arabia's military intercepted multiple Iranian drones. Bahrain arrested four citizens on espionage charges for working with Iran's IRGC. Kuwait saw six electricity transmission lines knocked out by drone debris. These countries did not invite this war, but they are now living with its consequences.
C. Russia's Perspective
Russia's position is a study in strategic ambiguity and cold calculation. Russia and Iran had grown close in recent years — bonded by shared hostility to the West, mutual economic interests, and military cooperation. Iran had supplied Russia with Shahed drones that were used to devastating effect against Ukraine. Russia had supplied Iran with satellite data and, reportedly, specific drone-targeting intelligence during the current war.
Yet Russia did not come to Iran's defense. President Putin called the killing of Khamenei 'cynical' but refused to name the United States. He called Gulf leaders to offer Russia as a mediator. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov condemned the strikes but offered no military support.
Why? Because Russia has its own calculations. The war in Iran has spiked global oil prices — Brent crude jumped past $100 per barrel. Russia, whose economy depends on oil exports, benefits directly. Trump temporarily lifted some sanctions on Russian oil to help stabilize global energy markets, another windfall for Moscow. Every Patriot air defense missile used to shoot down Iranian drones over Gulf cities is one fewer available to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles.
Russian analyst Fyodor Lukyanov stated: The killing of the head of one state by the forces of another state, in the same pattern as the liquidation of the leaders of terrorist organizations or drug cartels, is a fundamentally different dimension of world politics.
D. Western European Perspective
Western Europe has been deeply uncomfortable with this war, but has largely not opposed it. France and Germany joined UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in condemning Iranian counter-strikes, while calling for a resumption of diplomacy. However, Starmer also allowed American forces to use British bases for the war. France authorized the use of French military bases for American operations as well.
Spain took a harder position — it refused to allow its military bases to be used for US flights connected to the Iran offensive, leading President Trump to threaten economic retaliation against Spain.
The Europeans' core concern is threefold: First, they believe the strikes were illegal under international law and set a dangerous precedent for regime change by military force. Second, they are alarmed by rising oil prices and the threat to global economic stability. Third, they worry about a nuclear breakout — if Iran decides that conventional deterrence has failed, it might rush toward a nuclear weapon.
European leaders also invoked Ukraine — noting that the same type of shock-and-decapitation strategy used against Iran could, in theory, be contemplated against other countries. The precedent terrified many in Europe.
E. American Interests
President Trump framed the war as necessary and justified. His stated goals included destroying Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, its navy, and its network of terrorist proxies. He also called for regime change in Tehran. Trump praised the joint operation as 'crushing the enemy' and said the war was 'very far ahead of schedule.'
But the economic consequences have been severe. Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel. Stock markets fell sharply. American consumers faced higher fuel costs and rising grocery prices. Seven US soldiers were killed — the first American battle deaths in the Middle East in years. The war disrupted global trade, stranded hundreds of thousands of travelers, and threatened the global economy.
The Trump administration claimed it had a plan to keep energy markets stable — releasing strategic reserves, coordinating with allies to add oil to markets, and even temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil. Critics pointed out that these measures were reactive, not preventive.
The deeper American interest is strategic: the removal of the Iranian regime — or at minimum the permanent destruction of its nuclear and military capabilities — would reshape the Middle East in America's favor, cementing Israeli security, reassuring Gulf allies, and eliminating the single most significant adversary of American power in the region.
F. Indian Perspective
India's core interests in this war are economic and humanitarian. Ten million Indian citizens live across the Gulf. Two-thirds of India's oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz. India's Chabahar Port development in Iran — a strategic gateway to Central Asia — is now at risk. Indian businesses and workers are caught in the middle of a war they had no role in.
Modi's government has faced sharp criticism for its silence on the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader and the violation of Iranian sovereignty. At the same time, it has condemned Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states, where most Indian workers live. This asymmetry — condemning Iran's retaliation while staying silent on the original American-Israeli strikes — has been noticed across the world and has damaged India's credibility as a neutral actor.
India's long-term interest is in a stable Middle East, free movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the safety of its diaspora. The war serves none of these interests. India has urged dialogue and diplomacy but lacks the leverage or the political will to play a meaningful mediating role.
How they see the ongoing War
Donald Trump, US President: Together [with Israel] we are crushing the enemy. The war is very far ahead of schedule. Iran would have used a nuclear weapon against Israel if it possessed one.
Pete Hegseth, US Defense Secretary: The US will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated. President Trump gets to control the throttle of this war.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian President: Iran will consider ending the war if its legitimate rights are recognised, reparations are paid, and firm international guarantees prevent future attacks.
Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new Supreme Leader: The Strait of Hormuz oil shipping lane will remain closed. Bases used by US forces will be subjected to further attacks unless they are shut down.
Yahya Rahim Safavi, Senior Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader: Trump is the most corrupt and stupid American president — Satan himself.
Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran will continue fighting as long as necessary. America has decided to put an end to the existence of Iran. They held talks in Geneva and then committed aggression against us. They are carpet bombing Iran.
Gidon Saar, Israeli Foreign Minister: Iran is acting very stupidly, attacking not less than 10 countries — all the Gulf states, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, even Turkey. This regime is not sane. We do not want to go to a new war every year. The political endgame will be written by the Iranian people.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister: [To Modi] You are my brother. [On the war] Israel and the United States are eliminating the threat for the long term.
Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister: US-Israeli strikes on Iran were unprovoked aggression and unacceptable.
Vladimir Putin, Russian President: [Called Khamenei's killing] a cynical murder. Russia is ready to use all possibilities at hand to actively help stabilize the situation.
Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister: This was a war that should never have happened, and a war that benefited no one.
Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister: Expressed deep concern over the escalation of tensions and the loss of civilian lives. The safety and security of Indian nationals, along with the need for unhindered transit of goods and energy, remain India's top priorities.
Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister: [He] does not believe in regime change from the skies. [But condemned Iranian counter-strikes and called for diplomacy.]
UN Special Rapporteur Ben Saul: Iran had not enriched uranium to the point of building a nuclear device. The case was nowhere close to being self-defense against an imminent attack. The strikes appear illegal under the Rome Statute.
Chronology of Events: Last 13 Days (Feb 28 – Mar 13, 2026)
Day 1 — Saturday, February 28: American B-2 bombers and Israeli F-35 jets launch 'Operation Epic Fury' — a massive surprise attack on nuclear sites, missile factories, naval bases, and leadership compounds across Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed. An Iranian missile kills 9 people in Beit Shemesh, central Israel. An explosion is seen in Tel Aviv. IRGC fires 10 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv, injuring 124. Iranian missile and drone strikes begin across Gulf countries. The Russian consulate in Isfahan is damaged in US-Israeli strikes. Iranian IRGC fires over 500 missiles and nearly 2,000 drones in the first days. Iran strikes the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.
Day 2 — Sunday, March 1: Dubai Airport — one of the world's busiest — is struck and temporarily closes. Iranian strikes hit Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Manama, Kuwait, and Doha. Smoke billows from Zayed Port in Abu Dhabi. Iraq suspends oil terminal operations after Iranian attacks set two oil tankers on fire. An Iranian missile strike hits the US Embassy in Kuwait. Russia offers to mediate.
Day 3 — Monday, March 2: A Kuwaiti F/A-18 shoots down three American F-15E jets in a friendly fire incident; all six crew survive. US strikes destroy Iran's Supreme National Security Council headquarters and what officials call an underground nuclear weapons facility. Twenty civilians are killed in Tehran's Niloofar Square. Iran strikes Erbil, Iraq — near US forces. Dow Jones falls over 400 points.
Day 4 — Tuesday, March 3: Iran's Red Crescent reports over 600 civilians killed in Iran. US and Israeli strikes reportedly damage Natanz nuclear facility. Bushehr Airport is struck; an Iran Air passenger plane is destroyed on the ground. Russian nuclear agency Rosatom suspends work at the Bushehr Nuclear Plant and evacuates non-essential staff. Jordan reports 119 Iranian missiles and drones fired at its territory.
Day 5 — Wednesday, March 4: US military reports destruction of 16 Iranian naval minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian warship IRIS Dena is torpedoed by a US submarine just off Sri Lanka — the ship had just left an Indian naval exercise. Saudi Arabia intercepts multiple drones heading toward the Shaybah oilfield. A girl dies in Kuwait from shrapnel wounds.
Day 6 — Thursday, March 5: France authorizes US forces to use French bases. Iranian forces fire over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since Day 1 — 40% aimed at Israel, 60% at US targets. Qatar says Qatar Airways will operate limited flights.
Day 7 — Friday, March 6: Qatar's energy minister warns the war could halt Gulf energy exports entirely and 'bring down economies of the world.' Oil prices rise sharply.
Day 8 — Saturday, March 7: US Central Command reports strikes on over 5,000 Iranian targets. Satellite images confirm fresh damage at Natanz nuclear facility and the Isfahan missile complex. Lebanon's death toll from Israeli strikes surpasses 486. UNESCO protests damage to Golestan Palace, a World Heritage Site.
Day 9 — Sunday, March 8: Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the assassinated Supreme Leader, is elected Iran's new Supreme Leader. He suffered minor injuries in the initial strikes. Iran and Hezbollah launch a joint five-hour missile attack, striking over 50 targets in Israel. The Pentagon identifies the seventh American killed — Sgt. Benjamin Pennington of Kentucky — who died of wounds from an attack on Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia.
Day 10 — Monday, March 9: Trump says war could be over 'pretty quickly.' Iran's new Supreme Leader vows to keep fighting. Russia is reported to be giving Iran specific tactical advice on drone targeting. Hundreds of thousands rally in Tehran in support of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Iranian women's soccer team, playing in Australia, refuses to sing the national anthem — several players seek asylum.
Day 11 — Tuesday, March 10: Iran and Hezbollah carry out joint missile operation. Five hours of sustained fire; over 50 targets struck in Israel. Israel launches large-scale strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs. One man dies from shrapnel near Tel Aviv airport. Gulf countries intercept Iranian missiles. IEA releases a record 400 million barrels of oil reserves.
Day 12 — Wednesday, March 11: IRGC fires on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran mines the Strait; US destroys 16 Iranian minelayers. A top Iranian official rules out diplomacy in a CNN interview. US CENTCOM reports over 6,000 airstrikes on Iran. Oil hits $100 a barrel.
Day 13 — Thursday, March 12–13: At least 1,348 civilians killed and over 17,000 injured in Iran. In Lebanon, over 634 killed. Up to 3.2 million people displaced inside Iran, according to UNHCR. Iran's President Pezeshkian states three conditions for ending the war: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future attacks. India's PM Modi calls Iranian President and expresses concern. Netanyahu says Israeli strikes have killed Iran's top nuclear scientists. Oil prices remain above $100.
🗓️ March 13, 2026 — Key Events in the US-Iran War
Military Operations
- According to CENTCOM, since the start of the campaign approximately [Alma Research and Education Center](https://israel-alma.org/daily-report-the-second-iran-war-march-13-2026-1600/) 6,000 targets across Iran have been struck, and more than 90 Iranian vessels have been destroyed or damaged.
- A US KC-135 aerial refueling tanker crashed in western Iraq. Four of six crew members were killed, with rescue operations underway for the remaining two. The crash was not attributed to hostile or friendly fire, and officials believed it may have involved a mid-air collision with a second KC-135. [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-israel-gulf-allies-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-oil-prices-stocks/
March 14, 3026
Iran's Leadership & Statements
- VP JD Vance stated that Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was "hurt," though the extent of his injuries was unclear. President Trump separately said he believed Khamenei was "damaged" but "probably alive in some form." [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-13-26)
- Iranian state media released the first public statement attributed to new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, vowing to maintain Iran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz and continue attacks on Gulf Arab nations. [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-israel-gulf-allies-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-oil-prices-stocks/)
Attacks Across the Region
In Turkey, missiles were intercepted above Incirlik Air Base — marking the third time Iran had launched missiles toward Turkish territory. The missiles were intercepted by NATO forces. [Alma Research and Education Center](https://israel-alma.org/daily-report-the-second-iran-war-march-13-2026-1600/)
- In the UAE, an Iranian drone struck a building in the Dubai International Financial Centre. In Saudi Arabia, more than 50 Iranian UAVs entered airspace overnight. [Alma Research and Education Center](https://israel-alma.org/daily-report-the-second-iran-war-march-13-2026-1600/)
- Iran also targeted Gulf countries with missiles and drones, causing Bahrain to report attacks on fuel tanks and Kuwait to report that six electricity transmission lines went out of service after intercepted drone debris struck infrastructure. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war)
- A French soldier was killed and several others wounded in an Iranian UAV attack on a French base near Erbil Airport in Iraqi Kurdistan. [Alma Research and Education Center](https://israel-alma.org/daily-report-the-second-iran-war-march-13-2026-1600/)
Energy & Economic Impact
Yhe war continued causing a global fuel crisis, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to tankers, driving oil shortages and forcing countries to tap emergency reserves. [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/13/us/5-things-to-know-for-march-13-war-with-iran-air-force-plane-crash-violence-uptick-moon-mission-housing-affordability)
To help manage the economic costs, the US temporarily lifted restrictions on the sale of Russian oil, though oil prices remained barely affected by the move. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war)
Iran's Quds Day Marches
Iran held marches marking International Quds Day. Senior regime officials moved among demonstrators displaying apparent confidence, with the customary burning of US and Israeli flags and chants of "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." [Alma Research and Education Center](https://israel-alma.org/daily-report-the-second-iran-war-march-13-2026-1600/)
Concluding Observations
The 2026 war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is still ongoing as of this writing. Its outcome remains deeply uncertain. The United States has achieved many of its immediate military objectives — destroying much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, killing its Supreme Leader, and severely degrading its navy and missile forces. But Iran has proven willing to absorb enormous pain and continue fighting.
The human cost is staggering — over 1,300 civilians killed in Iran, more than 600 in Lebanon, and at least eight American soldiers dead. Up to 3.2 million Iranians have been displaced. Oil prices have broken $100 a barrel, threatening global economic stability. The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world's oil flows — remains closed.
Diplomatically, the world is divided. Russia is a reluctant bystander that quietly benefits from rising oil prices. China opposes the war. Europe is uncomfortable but largely silent. India is caught between its alliances with America and Israel on one side, and its deep interests in Iran on the other.
What happens next depends on several unknowns: Will the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, seek a ceasefire or escalate further? Will Iran attempt a nuclear breakout? Will China or Russia step in more directly? And will the American public, facing higher gas prices and an uncertain military outcome, continue to support the war?
One thing is already certain: the Middle East as it existed before February 28, 2026, is gone. Whatever emerges from this conflict will shape the region — and the world — for decades to come. Supply of energy will be the economic stability in terms of volumes and prices:
Source Readings
The following sources were used in this article. Readers seeking more detailed information are encouraged to consult these directly.
[1] Wikipedia: '2026 Iran War' — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
[2] Britannica: '2026 Iran Conflict' — https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-Conflict
[3] Al Jazeera: Day-by-day coverage of the Iran War, March 2026 — https://www.aljazeera.com
[4] CNN: 'What we know on day 11 and 12 of the Iran War' — https://www.cnn.com
[5] CBS News: 'US-Israeli war with Iran intensifies' — https://www.cbsnews.com
[6] House of Commons Library: 'US-Israel Strikes on Iran: February/March 2026' — https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk
[7] Atlantic Council: 'Twenty Questions About the Iran War' — https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
[8] TIME Magazine: 'How Russia Emerged as an Early Winner of the Iran War' — https://time.com
[9] Foreign Policy Research Institute: 'From Tehran to Donbas' — https://www.fpri.org
[10] Russia Matters: 'Russia Condemns Deadly Attacks on Iran' — https://www.russiamatters.org
[11] Jerusalem Post: 'Iran War Tests India's Balancing Act' — https://www.jpost.com
[12] Asia Times: 'Modi's Silence on Iran' — https://asiatimes.com
[13] Al Jazeera: 'How US Sinking of Iranian Warship Blew Hole in Modi's Claims' — https://www.aljazeera.com
[14] Middle East Eye: 'Why India's Modi Chose to Back Israel Over Iran' — https://www.middleeasteye.net
[15] Bloomberg: 'India's Middle East Policy Faces Questions' — https://www.bloomberg.com
[16] Al Jazeera: 'Is BRICS Bloc Divided Over US-Israel Attacks on Iran?' — https://www.aljazeera.com
[17] Axios: '9 Countries That Could Get Involved in the Iran War' — https://www.axios.com
[18] Lowy Institute: 'What the Iran Conflict Means for Russia' — https://www.lowyinstitute.org
[19] Indian Republic: 'Modi Tells Iran's President India's Priority Is Safety of Nationals' — https://www.indianrepublic.in
The following sources were used in this article. Readers seeking more detailed information are encouraged to consult these directly.
[1] Wikipedia: '2026 Iran War' — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
[2] Britannica: '2026 Iran Conflict' — https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-Conflict
[3] Al Jazeera: Day-by-day coverage of the Iran War, March 2026 — https://www.aljazeera.com
[4] CNN: 'What we know on day 11 and 12 of the Iran War' — https://www.cnn.com
[5] CBS News: 'US-Israeli war with Iran intensifies' — https://www.cbsnews.com
[6] House of Commons Library: 'US-Israel Strikes on Iran: February/March 2026' — https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk
[7] Atlantic Council: 'Twenty Questions About the Iran War' — https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
[8] TIME Magazine: 'How Russia Emerged as an Early Winner of the Iran War' — https://time.com
[9] Foreign Policy Research Institute: 'From Tehran to Donbas' — https://www.fpri.org
[10] Russia Matters: 'Russia Condemns Deadly Attacks on Iran' — https://www.russiamatters.org
[11] Jerusalem Post: 'Iran War Tests India's Balancing Act' — https://www.jpost.com
[12] Asia Times: 'Modi's Silence on Iran' — https://asiatimes.com
[13] Al Jazeera: 'How US Sinking of Iranian Warship Blew Hole in Modi's Claims' — https://www.aljazeera.com
[14] Middle East Eye: 'Why India's Modi Chose to Back Israel Over Iran' — https://www.middleeasteye.net
[15] Bloomberg: 'India's Middle East Policy Faces Questions' — https://www.bloomberg.com
[16] Al Jazeera: 'Is BRICS Bloc Divided Over US-Israel Attacks on Iran?' — https://www.aljazeera.com
[17] Axios: '9 Countries That Could Get Involved in the Iran War' — https://www.axios.com
[18] Lowy Institute: 'What the Iran Conflict Means for Russia' — https://www.lowyinstitute.org
[19] Indian Republic: 'Modi Tells Iran's President India's Priority Is Safety of Nationals' — https://www.indianrepublic.in
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